Tianjin, China — On October 24, leading global metals miner Zijin Mining convened the Zijin Forum during the China Mining Conference 2025, to discuss opportunities and challenges for gold mining. The event brought together senior officials from resource-rich countries, mining executives, leading think-tankers, analysts and investment bankers, who shared insights on new dynamics behind gold prices, investment opportunities in Asia, and global collaboration.

The forum, held against the backdrop of a historic gold rally that saw prices top US$4,300 per ounce this year, drew standing-room-only crowds and a large online audience—over 100,000 views, 110,000 likes, and 2,000 comments, with more than 5,600 concurrent viewers at its peak. Zijin’s President Zou Laichang attended the event, and Board Secretary Zheng Youcheng moderated the keynote session. A high-level panel later explored mergers and acquisitions in the global gold sector.

Gold’s New Paradigm

The meteoric rise in gold prices, analysts argued, can no longer be convincingly explained by their traditional correlation with real interest rates. Qi Ding, Chief Nonferrous Metals Analyst at CICC, noted that 2022 marked a true “watershed moment” for gold valuation. 

“From 2022 to 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked rates by 525 basis points, yet gold prices didn’t fall—they broke record after record,” Qi said. “The reason is structural: the weaponization of the U.S. dollar has damaged confidence in the dollar-based system.” 

He pointed out that central banks have purchased over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for three consecutive years in pursuit of financial security. His data showed a dramatic shift: between 2003 and 2022, gold prices and U.S. real interest rates were strongly negatively correlated, but since 2022, that correlation has flipped positive, now standing at 0.44. “It’s not that the old logic failed,” he said, “but that it’s been overshadowed by the new de-dollarization logic.”

Echoing this sentiment, Chifeng Gold President Yang Yifang compared gold to “a ship sailing in uncharted waters,” saying, “There is simply no ceiling for gold prices.” She emphasized that gold’s physical scarcity underpins its long-term strength: “Gold is mined, not manufactured. We see two distinct developments for gold—ore grades are falling and mines are going deeper. On a century-long timeline, gold prices have never truly gone backward.”

Qi also estimated that even at US$4,250 per ounce, gold accounts for only 28.8% of global foreign exchange reserves, which total US$17.23 trillion. If countries with less than 15% of their reserves in gold were to increase their allocation to that global average, demand for nearly 5,000 tonnes of gold—roughly 18 months of global supply—would emerge. With global mined gold output growing just 1.6% annually over the past 15 years, structural supply constraints remain the key driver of prices.

Tang Jinrong, Deputy Director of the Development Research Center at the China Geological Survey, added that rising exploration difficulty and discovery costs will continue to support prices, but cautioned that forces in the capital markets could still cause significant short-term volatility.

The Asia Opportunity

“The frequency of new gold discoveries has been falling over the past 15 years,” said Li Ying, Senior Analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights. “New finds made in recent years are becoming smaller.” Despite higher asset valuations that have raised the bar for M&A activity, Chinese companies remain keenly interested in gold. In 2024 alone, they completed six transactions worth a total of US$1.7 billion.

Tang Jinrong outlined trends since 2000: exploration investment has quadrupled, but average discovery costs have risen 27-fold, discovery rates have fallen 64%, average deposit sizes are down 30%, and average depths are 60% greater. “Mining companies are spending more to find smaller, lower-grade deposits deeper underground,” he said.

Zijin’s senior in-house researcher Zhang Weibo presented the concept of the “Asian Strategic Space.” Although Asia is home to 28% of the world’s gold reserves, major global miners hold just 5% of them. “Why aren’t they here?” he asked. “Because they don’t want to, can’t, or don’t dare to.” 

Western firms, he explained, often struggle with the distinct and fragmented policy systems and strong domestic capital bases of Asian countries. And past experiences of Western giants with sanctions or nationalizations in Central Asia have left a perception of high policy risk.

Zijin Gold International’s President Guo Xianjian shared the company’s successful experience in the region. “We’ve built a long-term, systematic presence in Central Asia, now operating three assets in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan,” he said. “Most of these mines come with low-grade or complex ores, but through technological and managerial innovation, we have made them steady contributors to our production and profit.”

Zhang summarized the investment logic as the “Three-Overlap Theory”, which refers to areas with strong resource potential, high reserve-to-production ratios, and reform policies. “Jurisdictions in Central, West, and Southeast Asia that are accessible, mineral-rich, and have growth potential could become new strategic frontiers for Chinese and Western miners alike in the years ahead,” he said. 

Tang agreed, noting that Central Asia was historically the resource and production base of the former Soviet Union. “Because systematic exploration has been limited since the 1990s,” he said, “the odds of discovering large or ultra-large gold deposits there remain higher than elsewhere.”

Partnership Key to Global Expansion

Mergers and acquisitions remain the fastest way for mining companies to secure resources. Zijin’s Vice President Shen Shaoyang described the company’s distinct path at the panel discussion: “Among the top five global gold miners by market cap, all except Zijin Gold International have benefited from mergers to achieve their current size. We have done it purely through acquisitions—no mergers yet—charting our own course.”

Morgan Stanley Managing Director Shen Chen, who advised on Zijin Gold International’s Hong Kong listing, attributed strong subscription to the flotation by long-term global investors to Zijin’s three core capabilities: acquiring resources at half the industry’s average cost per ounce, expanding reserves through exploration at one-third of the average cost, and exceptional post-acquisition operational capabilities that quickly address the bottlenecks of challenging assets.

The panelists agreed that M&A success goes far beyond the transaction itself. As Shen noted, “Chinese miners are moving from ‘global outreach’ to ‘local integration,’ strengthening technological innovation, global strategy execution, and localized operations to support their acquisitions.” 

Zhaojin Mining’s President Duan Lei said Chinese gold miners’ global expansion has evolved from being economically driven to strategically driven. “In three to five years, at least three Chinese gold producers will rank among the world’s top ten,” he predicted. Duan shared Zhaojin’s “three keys” to resilience across industry cycles—increment, low costs, and refined management—and introduced the idea of the “mine within a mine,” meaning unlocking further value through improvements in feed grades and recovery, which are made possible by technology and management expertise.

Yang Yifang stressed the importance of soft power: “Acquisition is just the beginning; integration is the true test of a company’s capability. Cross-cultural communication capabilities—built on respect and understanding of different cultures and mindsets—is often what determines a deal’s success.”

This message resonated with ministers from two resource-rich nations. Suriname’s Minister of Natural Resources, David Abiamofo, praised Zijin for turning the previously loss-making Rosebel Gold Mine into a profitable, sustainable operation, setting benchmarks in biodiversity conservation, local employment, and community investment. Ghana’s Deputy Minister of Lands and Natural Resources, Alhaji Yusif Sulemana, noted: “We want to partner with responsible companies to ensure that mining benefits all communities and that everyone equitably shares in the value it creates.”

Amid the rise of resource nationalism, some experts argued that the notion should not be viewed as a threat but as a reality to be accepted, since it will remain inextricably linked to mining in the foreseeable future.

“Mining is a highly globalized industrial system,” echoed Zijin’s Shen Shaoyang. “Few countries possess all the elements required for mining. The right path forward for companies is to align with the trend, treating all stakeholders as equals and pursuing mutual benefits.”